Affichage des archives de vendredi, 12 octobre 2018

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2018 Oct 12 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
12 Oct 2018	071	007
13 Oct 2018	071	007
14 Oct 2018	071	029

Bulletin

The new Active Region near the East limb has produced a B1.7 flare in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 3%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 480 to 400 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. A high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth near the start of October 14, enhancing the solar wind conditions.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 12 and 13. Active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on October 14 due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, with a chance for minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) intervals.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 017, sur la base de 20 stations.

Indices solaires pour 11 Oct 2018

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	012
Flux solaire à 10 cm	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	011
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	007 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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