Affichage des archives de lundi, 17 décembre 2018

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2018 Dec 17 1230 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
17 Dec 2018	070	013
18 Dec 2018	070	010
19 Dec 2018	070	004

Bulletin

The Sun did not produce any B flares or brighter in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 2%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

In the early UT hours of December 17, the solar wind near Earth as observed by DSCOVR showed the first signs of influence from an anticipated solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity, equatorial-South polar coronal hole. After a rise in solar wind density, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) rose to a maximum of around 12 nT. Meanwhile, the solar wind speed has increased from about 300 to 440 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its magnitude has current values around 6 nT. Bz was never below -6 nT.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. There is a chance for active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) on December 17 and 18, related to the arrival of a solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity, equatorial-South polar coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 19.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 000, sur la base de 15 stations.

Indices solaires pour 16 Dec 2018

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	070
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Ap estimé	002
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	000 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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