Affichage des archives de jeudi, 14 mars 2019

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2019 Mar 14 1241 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
14 Mar 2019	070	013
15 Mar 2019	070	020
16 Mar 2019	070	011

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with X-ray flux remaining below B level. A new small bipolar region (Catania group 10) formed overnight but has by now almost lost its spots already. X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level.

Coronagraph images show a faint and slow Eastward CME in the morning of March 12. It is also and more clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 images moving there towards the West. This confirms the CME is heading towards a direction in between Earth and STEREO A. It's speed is estimated not to exceed background solar wind. While it is not excluded that a component of the CME reaches Earth by late March 16 or March 17, its effects should be minimal. No other Earth directed CME's have been detected in coronagraph data.

The Solar proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind conditions were close to nominal with solar wind speed in the 320-370 km/s range and total magnetic field around a nominal 5nT. Since after 2:00UT magnetic field orientation suggests the passage of a magnetic structure possibly associated to the March 9 CME. Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced later today or tomorrow due to the expected high speed stream from the equatorial coronal hole that crossed central meridian late March 10. Towards March 17 there is a small possibility of some slow CME transients assoicated to the March 12 CME.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-2) and are expected to become unsettled with a possibility for active periods under high speed stream influence.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 012, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 13 Mar 2019

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	000
Flux solaire à 10 cm	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	000 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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