Affichage des archives de samedi, 21 novembre 2020

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2020 Nov 21 1234 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
21 Nov 2020	083	006
22 Nov 2020	087	022
23 Nov 2020	089	019

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels with two C-class flares registered in the past 24 hours. A C1 flare (peak at 18:44 UTC) was produced from an active region behind the east limb and a C1.9 flare with peak time at 17:03UTC on Nov 20th was produced by active region NOAA 2783 (Hsx/alpha). A new unnamed and unclassified active region has formed in the north-east quadrant, approximately at N32E35. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a 50% chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M class flare. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels. Enhancements of the > 2MeV electron flux and fluence are foreseen within the next 24 hours related to the expected arrival of a high speed stream originating from coronal hole CH 96.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind speed was relatively stable with maximal velocity remaining below 390 km/s (ACE and DSCOVR). The total magnetic field reached a maximal strength of 7 nT with Bz component varying between -6 nT and 6 nT. The phi angle showed long periods in the positive sectors and is currently fluctuating between the positive and negative sectors.

Geomagnetic activity was globally quiet with a single locally unsettled period when K Dourbes registered 3. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours due to the foreseen arrival of a high speed stream (HSS) originating from coronal hole CH 96 by the morning of Nov. 22nd. With the arrival of the HSS there are slight chances for a minor geomagnetic storm.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 021, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 20 Nov 2020

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	011
Flux solaire à 10 cm	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	010 - Basé sur 30 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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