Affichage des archives de jeudi, 26 novembre 2020

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2020 Nov 26 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
26 Nov 2020	107	007
27 Nov 2020	109	006
28 Nov 2020	110	004

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2786 (Beta) exhibited signs of flux emergence and continued to develop further trailer spots. The region produced a C1.8 flare at 06:52 UT Nov 26. NOAA AR 2783 (Beta) and NOAA AR 2785 (Alpha) remained quiet. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a high chance for C-class flares, particularly from NOAA AR 2786. An isolated M-class flare also remains possible.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold for the first half of the period. During the next 24 hours, the electron flux is likely to exceed the 1000 pfu level again. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed fluctated around 380 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength had a maximum value of 6 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed away from the Sun (phi angle in the positive sector). Over the next 48 hours the solar wind may show some weak enhancements associated with the extension to the northern polar coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Nov 23.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values of 1-3 and 0-4, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 48 hours with the possibility of an isolated active interval in response to the predicted possible further enhancements in the solar wind

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 049, sur la base de 11 stations.

Indices solaires pour 25 Nov 2020

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	104
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	009
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	042 - Basé sur 29 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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