Affichage des archives de dimanche, 20 décembre 2020

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2020 Dec 20 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
20 Dec 2020	083	005
21 Dec 2020	083	004
22 Dec 2020	083	013

Bulletin

The Sun is spotless and has produced no B flares or brighter in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR has increased from about 330 to about 415 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 375 km/s. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly positive (away from the Sun) and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 8 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for an extended period. Nominal to slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on December 20 and 21. On December 22, solar wind conditions may be enhanced due to the expected encounter of the Earth with a solar wind stream from an extension of the (positive polarity) north polar crown coronal hole.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 20 and 21, with a slight chance for active intervals (K Dourbes = 4). Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are possible on December 22 due to the expected solar wind stream from an extension of the (positive polarity) north polar crown coronal hole, with a slight chance for minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5).

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 000, sur la base de 11 stations.

Indices solaires pour 19 Dec 2020

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	000 - Basé sur 15 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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