Affichage des archives de mardi, 2 mars 2021

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2021 Mar 02 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
02 Mar 2021	071	013
03 Mar 2021	071	017
04 Mar 2021	071	010

Bulletin

Apart from a small new Alpha region that is already decaying again, the Sun is spotless, and it did not produce any C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 1%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours; moderate values are possible in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR first decreased from about 470 km/s to about 350 km/s and then increased again to about 590 km/s, possibly related to the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with the negative polarity southern crown coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on February 26. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 12 nT, with current values around 8 nT. Bz was not below -5 nT for extended periods. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 2, 3 and 4, with a chance for minor geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 5).

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 012, sur la base de 16 stations.

Indices solaires pour 01 Mar 2021

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	///
Ap estimé	028
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	010 - Basé sur 28 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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