Affichage des archives de jeudi, 4 mars 2021

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2021 Mar 04 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
04 Mar 2021	074	009
05 Mar 2021	074	027
06 Mar 2021	074	019

Bulletin

The Sun did not produce any C flares during the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 20%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. Moderate values are possible in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours. There is a chance for moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 615 km/s to about 490 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease further until the expected arrival late on March 4 or on March 5 of a high speed stream associated with a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on March 1.

Quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 4, 5 and 6, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) on March 5 and 6.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 030, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 03 Mar 2021

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	039
Flux solaire à 10 cm	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	018
Ap estimé	020
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	032 - Basé sur 22 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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