Affichage des archives de lundi, 30 août 2021

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2021 Aug 30 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
30 Aug 2021	088	019
31 Aug 2021	087	013
01 Sep 2021	086	010

Bulletin

Catania sunspot group 32 (NOAA active region 2860) produced a number of C flares during the period of which the largest a C2.9 flare peaking at 17:30UT. Catania sunspot group 32 (NOAA active region 2860) remains of beta-gamma magnetic type and is expected to be the source of further C flaring with also another M flare from this region possible. The other spotted region on disc, Catania group 33 (NOAA active region 2859), is simple and inactive. Another active region is turning onto the disc in the North-East.

There were no new Earth directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and we expect it will remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached again above the 1000 pfu threshold during its diurnal maximum both yesterday and today. The 24h electron fluence is at moderate levels and we expect it to slowly decay and become normal to moderate.

Solar wind speed increased slightly to now around 400 km/s with a maximum of 440 km/s. The total magnetic field was mainly at nominal levels around 5nT, but saw a period of increased field strength to 11.5nT before midnight. The Bz component of the magnetic field was variable with a downward peak of -7.7nT. The orientation of the magnetic field fluctuated between the toward sector and the away sector. There is no sign yet of the possible arrival of the August 26 CME, but it may be expected to still arrive later today leading to enhanced solar wind conditions in the next 24-48 hours. Afterwards we will be expecting the arrival on September 2 of the August 28 CME.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3) with locally a few active periods before midnight (local K Dourbes 0-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be active with the possible CME arrival later today.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 039, sur la base de 15 stations.

Indices solaires pour 29 Aug 2021

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	089
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	009
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	047 - Basé sur 23 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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