Affichage des archives de jeudi, 14 octobre 2021

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2021 Oct 14 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
14 Oct 2021	084	007
15 Oct 2021	084	013
16 Oct 2021	084	015

Bulletin

The Sun produced four low C flares in the past 24 hours, mainly from new beta region NOAA 2885. The brightest flare was a C2.2 flare produced by region 2885, which peaked at 01:34 UT on October 14. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 65%, with a slight chance for an M flare, especially from region 2885.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 2 MeV electron fluence were at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and can both increase to moderate levels in the next 24 hours as a response to the ICME which arrived on October 12.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 425 to 375 km/s in the past 24 hours. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between about 2 and 6 nT, and IMF orientation was variable. Bz was never below -5 nT. A further decrease of solar wind speed is expected on October 14 and the first half of October 15. A high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole may arrive at Earth in the second half of October 15 or on October 16, leading to enhanced solar wind levels.

Quiet conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 14 and in the first half of October 15. In the second half of October 15 and on October 16, active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible due to the possible arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 021, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 13 Oct 2021

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	026
Flux solaire à 10 cm	084
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	018 - Basé sur 26 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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