Affichage des archives de mardi, 19 octobre 2021

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2021 Oct 19 1243 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
19 Oct 2021	077	014
20 Oct 2021	078	017
21 Oct 2021	080	008

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2886 (Catania sunspot region 64) has rotated further onto the disk and has a simple magnetic configuration (Alpha). The small sunspot (Catania sunspot region 63) that emerged yesterday has since decayed. Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next 24 hours with a slight probability of C-class flares from NOAA AR 2866

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind (DSCOVR) showed an enhancement in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field reached a maximum value of 12 nT. The Bz varied between -8 and +10 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 340 km/s and 390 km/s. The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to be enhanced on Oct 19 and 20, due to the influence of the High Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the with the small positive Coronal Hole (CH) and subsequently the larger negative polarity extension of the southern polar CH which began to cross the central meridian on Oct 16.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes recorded values of 1-4 and 1-3, respectively) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active on Oct 19 to 20, due to the arrival of the aforementioned HSS.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 010, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 18 Oct 2021

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	023
Flux solaire à 10 cm	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Ap estimé	///
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	016 - Basé sur 24 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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