Affichage des archives de vendredi, 3 décembre 2021

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2021 Dec 03 1234 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
03 Dec 2021	082	008
04 Dec 2021	080	014
05 Dec 2021	079	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels over the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 2898 is about to rotate over the west limb. NOAA AR 2902 has shown signs of decay. Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for a C-class flare.

A filament eruption was observed from 07UT Dec 03 originating in the north- west quadrant. An assessment of the likelihood of this to impact Earth will be made when coronagraph data become available. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold in the past 24 hours and is expected to exceed this threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence increased to be at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth continued to be under the waning influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed (DSCOVR) decreased gradually from 530 to 420 km/s. The total magnetic field fluctuated between 1 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on Dec 03 and Dec 04, due to the influence of the HSS from the positive polarity Coronal Hole (CH) that began to traverse the central meridian on Nov 30.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and K-BEL recorded values of 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods likely on Dec 03 and Dec 04, due to the expected HSS influence.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 027, sur la base de 11 stations.

Indices solaires pour 02 Dec 2021

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	044
Flux solaire à 10 cm	087
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	009
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	035 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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