Affichage des archives de lundi, 17 janvier 2022

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2022 Jan 17 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
17 Jan 2022	116	018
18 Jan 2022	115	011
19 Jan 2022	114	007

Bulletin

There are 7 visible active regions on the solar disk (alpha and beta magnetic field configurations). Three C-class flares occurred in the past 24 hours, the strongest was a C2.6 flare from NOAA AR 2929, peaking at 20:21 UT. More C-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours, M-class flares are possible.

There were two faint and slow CMEs on 15 January, and one on 16 January, related to eruptions around NOAA AR 2929. The eruptions were mostly directed to the north, but since the active region was close to central meridian, an Earth directed component cannot be discarded (there is only sparse STEREO data available), with an estimated arrival time around 19-20 January.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain close to the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to increase in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is still under the influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) with solar wind speeds close to 600 km/s in the past 24 hours (now around 550 km/s) and interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached (briefly) minor storm levels in Belgium (K_Bel = 5) in the past 24 hours, and active conditions were reached at planetary levels (Kp = 4). The CME from 14 January could arrive to the Earth in the coming 24 hours, more active to minor storm conditions can be expected then.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 091, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 16 Jan 2022

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	116
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	020
Ap estimé	019
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	102 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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