Affichage des archives de mardi, 22 février 2022

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2022 Feb 22 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
22 Feb 2022	098	019
23 Feb 2022	098	012
24 Feb 2022	098	007

Bulletin

New alpha region NOAA 2955 produced 2 low C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 60%, mainly from region 2955.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. There is a slight chance that it will exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 490 and 590 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values near 540 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 3 and 8 nT, while its orientation was away from the Sun. Bz was near or below -5 nT between 12:50 and 13:30 UT on February 21 and between 5:00 and 7:00 UT on February 22. A continuation of these enhanced solar wind conditions (under the influence of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole) is expected today, with a gradual decrease from February 23 onwards.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 3 and 5) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K-BEL = 4) are possible on February 22 and 23, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K-BEL < 4) are expected on February 24, with a chance for active intervals (K-BEL = 4).

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 036, sur la base de 11 stations.

Indices solaires pour 21 Feb 2022

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	060
Flux solaire à 10 cm	098
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	///
Ap estimé	015
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	048 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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