Affichage des archives de jeudi, 31 mars 2022
Rapport d'activité solaire
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2022 Mar 31 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 90 publié à 2200Z le 31 Mar 2022IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 30-2100Z au 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
31/1835Z from Region 2975 (N13W52). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 30-2100Z au 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 31/1148Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 31/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 31/0522Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 31/0630Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Apr). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (01
Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 01 Apr au 03 Apr
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 65% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 31 Mar 149 Prévisionnel 01 Apr-03 Apr 150/145/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 31 Mar 110
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 30 Mar 007/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 31 Mar 024/043 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 025/032-008/010-011/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 01 Apr au 03 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 05% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 70% | 30% | 55% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Dernière classe M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 22/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| décembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| janvier 2026 | 119.4 -4.6 |
| 30 derniers jours | 121.8 +8.9 |