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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2022 Apr 07 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
07 Apr 2022	112	010
08 Apr 2022	110	007
09 Apr 2022	110	012

Bulletin

Solar activity over the past 24 hours was at very low to low levels with a single impulsive C1.2-class flare, peak time 01:31 UT on Aril 7th, from the unipolar active region NOAA 2985 (alpha). There are currently four numbered active regions on the visible solar disk. The largest and most complex active regions is NOAA 2978 (beta), which underwent some decay and remained inactive together with its neighbouring region NOAA 2981 (beta). NOAA 2986 has turned into plage and is approaching the west limb. NOAA 2983 remained a stable alpha. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the next 24 hours with decreasing probability for C-class flaring.

A large filament erupted in the southern hemisphere on the central meridian last night resulting in a slow south-eastward CME detected by LASCO C2 around 05:30 UT this morning. The bulk of this CME is estimated to miss the Earth, but a glancing blow from its flank could arrive late on April 11th. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was oscillating around the 1000 pfu threshold is expected to continue to do so within the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours and is expected be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered the arrival of a minor solar wind structure. This could potentially reflect a weak flank of the expected ICME from the filament eruption on April 3rd, though it is difficult to separate these minor enhancements from a non-arrival. The solar wind density was slightly enhanced. The solar wind velocity was mostly around 400 km/s, weakly varying in the range of 370 to 466 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly enhanced up to 7.7 nT and the Bz component registered a minimum of -6.8 nT. The B field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly reflect background slow solar wind conditions with possible minor enhancements.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally quiet to unsettled and globally registered a single active period between 03-06 UT and 09-12 UT on Aril 7th. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with remaining chances for isolated active periods. Two mid-latitude negative polarity coronal holes have now crossed the central meridian and related high speed streams can result in unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions on April 9th and April 10th.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 054, sur la base de 17 stations.

Indices solaires pour 06 Apr 2022

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	059 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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