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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2022 Aug 06 1239 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
06 Aug 2022	114	003
07 Aug 2022	116	015
08 Aug 2022	116	014

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at very low levels over the past 24 hours below C-class flaring. NOAA AR 3068 (beta) started to diffuse and lost more than half of its sunspots. NOAA 3071 (alpha) remained simple and inactive. NOAA 3072 (beta) has shown some high B-class flaring and could produce isolated C-class flares. The active region which produced the strongest C-class flaring on Aug 05th is relatively small and simple, and is now numbered as NOAA 3073 (beta). One of the two simple regions which rotated from the east limb in the south-east quadrant is now numbered as NOAA 3074 (alpha). The other region in the north-east quadrant remains unnumbered, simple and inactive. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at very low to low levels with some chances for isolated C-class flaring.

No signature of a coronal mass ejection (CME) related to the type II radio emission at 06:57 UTC on Aug 05th was identified in the coronagraph data. The CME related to an on disc filament eruption in the south-east quadrant at 01:36 UTC on Aug 06th is estimated to miss the Earth. No other Earth- directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have returned to background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity was slow with values between 420 km/s and 341 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained weak with a maximum value of 5.6 nT and a minimum Bz of -4.2 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to be at background slow solar wind levels on Aug 06th and might experience weak enhancements due to a high speed stream (HSS) influence of a positive polarity coronal hole over the night of Aug 06th/early on Ag 07th. Another HSS from a separate positive polarity coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth on Aug 08th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled in Dourbes. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the rest of the day and quiet to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storms can be expected on Aug 07th and Aug 08th.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 078, sur la base de 18 stations.

Indices solaires pour 05 Aug 2022

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	081
Flux solaire à 10 cm	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	///
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	077 - Basé sur 31 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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