Affichage des archives de mardi, 11 octobre 2022

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2022 Oct 11 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
11 Oct 2022	163	007
12 Oct 2022	163	007
13 Oct 2022	163	007

Bulletin

There are five active regions on ths visible disc, the X-ray flux background has been at the C level in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3112 (beta magnetic field configuration) produced three M-class flares, the strongest was an M3.9 flare, peaking at 08:42 UT. More M-class flares can be expected in the coming 24 hours, X-flares are possible.

A slow CME with an apparent angular width of around 70 degrees was observed on 10 October (first seen in LASCO-C2 at 00:24 UT). It was directed mostly to the south east, but an Earth-directed component cannot be discarded, a glancing blow may occur on 14 October. The M-flares that occurred today were accompanied by Type-II bursts (as measured by the Humain Radioastronomy Station), no coronagraph data are available yet to confirm the presence of CMEs.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been above the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours, it is expected to remain elevated in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed at the Earth has decreased in the last 24 hours to about 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has been around 5 nT. In the next 24 hours, similar conditions are expected. Although there are small chances that the CME from 7 October arrives in the coming 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both Kp and K_Dourbes up to 3). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, active conditions are possible if the CME from 7 October arrives.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 100, sur la base de 19 stations.

Indices solaires pour 10 Oct 2022

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	010
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	113 - Basé sur 34 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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