Affichage des archives de dimanche, 16 octobre 2022

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2022 Oct 16 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
16 Oct 2022	115	007
17 Oct 2022	113	014
18 Oct 2022	111	007

Bulletin

There are four active regions on the visible disc, none of them created any significant flaring activity in the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 3112 (no longer visible) produced a C6.1 flare with peak at 14:32 UT on 15 October. There is a C-class flare ongoing at the moment of writing, currently at the C1 level, but the flux is still increasing. More C-class flaring can be expected for the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is still inside a fast solar wind stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed is at 580 km/s with an interplanetary magnetic field magnitude of 5 nT. We expect a return to slow solar wind conditions in the coming 24 hours, and a possible arrival of the CME from 13 October.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels locally (K_Dourbes up to 4) and globally (Kp up to 4). Unsettled to active conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, with possible minor storm levels if the CME from 13 October arrives in about 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 060, sur la base de 19 stations.

Indices solaires pour 15 Oct 2022

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	021
Ap estimé	021
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	041 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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