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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2022 Nov 20 1234 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
20 Nov 2022	117	019
21 Nov 2022	117	022
22 Nov 2022	117	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity reached moderate levels with an isolated M1.6 flare from NOAA region 3150 peaking at 12:56UTC. Only 2 more C flares were recorded both also from region 3150. Spreading of the footpoints was observed in this region which overall simplified. For the other three regions in the eastern hemisphere: NOAA active region 3149 in the north showed further emergence of spots and grew while NOAA active region 3147 was relatively stable and NOAA active region 3148 in the south is loosing its leading spots. Flaring at C level is expected.

Coronagraph images show only small and faint CME signatures towards the West related to the C8.3 flare reported yesterday, and a broader but clearly northward directed signature related to the subsequent filament eruption also reported yesterday. Both are judged to be too far of the Sun- Earth line to influence Earth. The M1.6 flare was associated with radio bursts and a dimming and a clear CME signature is seen in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 13:25UTC. The CME is directed to the northwest and has an angular extent of around 90 degrees and is not expected to influence Earth. In EUV images a filament eruption is recorded from the Southern hemisphere at high latitude around 1:00UTC with subsequent CME signatures in coronagraph images. It too is too far south to influence Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

A negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere has now completed its transit of the central meridian and is expected to start influencing current solar wind conditions.

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded. Solar wind speed decreased again to close to 300 km/s, while also the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field returned to a value of 5nT. Since 8:00UTC we see however a new slow but steady increase of both speed and magnetic field to currently 340km/s and 8nT. The orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field indicated connection to a negative sector (field towards the Sun) and its north-south component was mostly northward. Solar wind speed is expect to increase again to above 500 km/s later today with the onset of the expected high speed stream conditions related to the coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (NOAA Kp between 0+-1+ and local K Dourbes 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active with a chance for minor storm levels being reached in the next 48 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 080, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 19 Nov 2022

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	066 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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