Affichage des archives de jeudi, 1 décembre 2022

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2022 Dec 01 1250 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
01 Dec 2022	114	025
02 Dec 2022	117	029
03 Dec 2022	119	011

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. Catania sunspot group 6 (NOAA AR 3152) produced the largest flare, an M1 flare peaking at 07:21 UT. Catania sunspot group 8 (NOAA AR 3153), is currently rotating onto the solar disk near S16E80 and has produced multiple C-class flares, although due to its location the complexity of the region is difficult to ascertain. Catania sunspot group 7 (NOAA AR 3154) emerged in the southern hemisphere, S38E03, but has been quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares possible and a chance for isolated M-class flares.

The slow Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) reported yesterday, associated with the filament eruption on November 29, is not expected to impact the Earth. Two wide consecutive CMEs were observed to the north and east in LASCO C2 from 01:25 UT December 01, further investigation is ongoing to determine the source of these events. No other Earth directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor-storm warning threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours, decreasing below the threshold again from 18:45 UT November 30. The threshold is expected to be crossed again in the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 510 and 700 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 5 and 12 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to be further enhanced over the next 24 hours, due to the influence of the high-speed stream associated with large positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which began to transit the central meridian on November 28.

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (NOAA KP 3-5 and Local K Dourbes 2-5). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to again reach minor storm levels over the next day in response to the high-speed stream.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 051, sur la base de 15 stations.

Indices solaires pour 30 Nov 2022

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	039
AK Wingst	025
Ap estimé	026
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	030 - Basé sur 15 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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