Affichage des archives de lundi, 19 décembre 2022

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2022 Dec 19 1234 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
19 Dec 2022	156	015
20 Dec 2022	156	022
21 Dec 2022	156	015

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. There are many sunspot regions currently on the solar surface visible from Earth and several C-class flares were recorded coming from bipolar sunspot regions (Beta magnetic class: NOAA-AR 3162, 3163, 3167 and 3169). The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares expected and a small possibility for M-class flares.

No clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal to low levels and is expected to stay at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

In the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters were reflecting slow solar wind conditions with the wind speed around 300 km/s. Then later the total interplanetary magnetic field became enhanced and reach values up to 16 nT with the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, ranging between -13.3 nT and 8.1 nT. This enhancement of the solar wind parameters announce the very soon arrival of the high-speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, which began to cross the central meridian on Dec 14. However, the impact may remain mild. From Dec 20 onwards, we are expecting the arrival of another high-speed stream, associated with the positive polarity, equatorial coronal hole that started to cross the central meridian on Dec 17.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle (K-Bel=1-3 NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a short period of active condition (NOAA-Kp=4) due to the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, being negative for a relatively long period. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active in the next days, due to the arrival of the previously mentioned high-speed streams.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 115, sur la base de 04 stations.

Indices solaires pour 18 Dec 2022

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	130 - Basé sur 10 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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