Affichage des archives de mercredi, 8 mars 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Mar 08 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
08 Mar 2023	184	003
09 Mar 2023	182	008
10 Mar 2023	180	003

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours with one M1 flare detected today at 10:12 UT from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3242 (magnetic type Beta-Delta, Catania group 5). Several C-class flares were also detected, with the single most frequent source being NOAA AR 3245 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 10). Further M-class activity is probably in the next 24 hours, either from NOAA AR 3242 or 3245. Further C-class activity is expected from one or more of the NOAA AR 3241, 3244, 3246, and 3247.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux fluctuated around the 1000 pfu alert threshold level and it is expected to continue with the same pattern during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are gradually returning to a slow SW regime during last 24 hours. The SW speed dropped from 610 to 430 km/s, while the total magnetic field (Bt) stayed below the 5 nT level and its North-South (Bz) component varied between -4 and 4 nT in the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed towards the Sun over the last 24 hours. There is a fair chance that a glancing blow from the two Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) launched on 6 Mar might arrive in the next 24 hours. If this prediction does not materialise the SW conditions will continue their return to a slow SW regime.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally and locally (NOAA Kp and K Doubres up to 3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to remain at quiet levels both globally and locally in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 147, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 07 Mar 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	010
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	178 - Basé sur 12 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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