Affichage des archives de lundi, 15 mai 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 May 15 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
15 May 2023	138	011
16 May 2023	140	013
17 May 2023	140	008

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low level with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a C3.4 flare, peaking at 00:51 UTC on May 15, associated with the NOAA AR 3306 (beta class), that emerged yesterday in the southern western hemisphere (S19W34). This region produced the majority of the flaring activity. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3305 (beta class), by NOAA AR 3293, that has rotated over the west solar limb and by ARs behind the east limb (S35E88), that are currently rotating onto the disk. The remaining regions on the solar disk were inactive. As there are no complex active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk, solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so.The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next day.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed showed a decreasing trend over the past 24 hours, decreasing from values near 530 km/s to around 470 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was around 6 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The southward interplanetary magnetic, Bz component, ranged between -4 nT and 4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours with a low probability for further minor enhancements, due to a small chance for glancing blow arrivals related to CMEs on May 11-12.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with a small chance for active periods and isolated minor storm due low probability of minor glancing blows.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 103, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 14 May 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	010
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	131 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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