Affichage des archives de lundi, 29 mai 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 May 29 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
29 May 2023	151	007
30 May 2023	149	007
31 May 2023	147	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

There are seven visible active regions on the solar disk. Only minor C-class flaring has been observed in the last 24 hours. These flares originated in NOAA ar 3315, 3314 and a region rotating into view from the east limb. This region produced the largest flare of the past 24 hours, a C2.3 flare peaking at 07:39 UT. NOAA AR 3315, with beta- gamma-delta magnetic field configuration, has potential to produce larger flares. There will be C-class flares in the next 24 hours, and M-class flares are possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Trous coronaux

A positive polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere crossed the central meridian today. A related high speed solar wind stream may arrive to the Earth on 1 June.

Vent solaire

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT and solar wind speed of about 370 km/s. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a (low) probability of seeing a glancing blow from the CMEs of 25-26 May. Furthermore, the solar wind from a small coronal hole with negative polarity in the northern hemisphere may arrive to the Earth in th next 24 hours, but since the coronal hole is located at high latitude, the corresponding high speed stream may miss the Earth.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled (K_Belgium and Kp up to 3). Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected, with chances of active levels if we see the glancing blow from the 25-26 May CMEs or the high speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 153, sur la base de 22 stations.

Indices solaires pour 28 May 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	011
Ap estimé	014
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	147 - Basé sur 26 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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