Affichage des archives de mardi, 13 juin 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Jun 13 1233 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
13 Jun 2023	145	005
14 Jun 2023	148	019
15 Jun 2023	150	011

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C5.1 flare, peaking at 23:27 UTC on June 13, associated with NOAA AR 3327. NOAA AR 3327 and NOAA AR 3231 are the most complex regions on the disk. The other regions on the disk are magnetically simple and produced only low-level C-class flares. A number of low-level C -class flares were also observed beyond the east solar limb from an active region expected to rotate onto the disk in the coming days. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

In the last 24 hours there were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations. A large filament eruption in the north west quadrant was observed but is not expected to be impact Earth.

Trous coronaux

A small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole is currently transiting the central meridian.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions continued to reflect the ongoing influence of a weak high-speed stream (HSS). The solar wind speed ranged between 416 to 492 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around 7nT with a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next day with the ongoing HSS influence and a there is a low probability for further minor enhancements from late on June 13, due to the possible arrival of the CME from June 09, which was predicted to have a glancing blow at Earth. The high speed stream associated with the coronal hole currently facing Earth is also then expected to arrive on June 16.

Géomagnétisme

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3 and K-Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on June 13, increasing to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm periods from late on June 13 and June 14, due to the combination of the current high-speed stream influence and a possible glancing blow of the ICME. Minor storm conditions may also be possible from June 16 in response to another high speed stream.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to gradually increase but remain below this threshold for the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 085, sur la base de 18 stations.

Indices solaires pour 12 Jun 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	153
Flux solaire à 10 cm	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	118 - Basé sur 27 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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