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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Jun 27 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
27 Jun 2023	157	007
28 Jun 2023	157	013
29 Jun 2023	157	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was mostly at low levels over the last 24 hours with one isolated M-class flare. The M1.6-class flare was produced by the currently most complex region on the disc, NOAA Active Region AR-3340 (Beta-gamma). The other active regions were also active producing several C-class flares. We expect the activity remaining mostly at low levels with several C-class flares, and possible isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

No clear Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the SOHO/LASCO coronograph images over the past 24 hours. However, a solar coronal dimming was observed today starting at around 01:00 UTC and ending around 01:45 UTC. This coronal dimming was located on the disc centre close to the Sunspot region NOAA AR 3349. This type of coronal events are usually associated with the initiation of a coronal mass ejection. Analysis is ongoing to estimate the potential impact of this or this coronal mass ejection heading toward Earth, and its arrival time.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions were affected by the passage of the coronal mass ejection glancing blow (associated to the X-class flare on Jun 24). The wind speed was between 475 km/s to 550 km/h. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) has now decreased to values around 6 nT. The southward component (Bz) was fluctuating between -6.9 nT and 3.9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately negative, directed toward the Sun during the past 24 hours. The solar wind condition is expected to remain mostly close to nominal values in the next hours. Then mild enhancement is expected due to the arrival of the high-speed streams from the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with some period of unsettled periods (NOAA Kp<4). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 24 hours, then possible unsettled to active condition may be expected with the solar wind enhancement due to the arrival of the high-speed streams associated with the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels for the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 158, sur la base de 17 stations.

Indices solaires pour 26 Jun 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	133
Flux solaire à 10 cm	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	017
Ap estimé	016
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	164 - Basé sur 26 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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