Affichage des archives de vendredi, 30 juin 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Jun 30 1259 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
30 Jun 2023	162	017
01 Jul 2023	162	017
02 Jul 2023	162	017

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was at moderated levels over the last 24 hours with several low C-class flares and one M-class flare. The M3.8-class flares produced at 14:14 UTC on Jun 29 by the NOAA Active Region AR-3354, which is now the most complex region on the disc (Beta-gamma-delta). The other complex active regions have also produced several C-class flares. We expect the activity remaining mostly at low to moderated levels with several C-class flares, and possible isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the SOHO/LASCO coronograph images over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

The solar wind parameters showed mild enhancement due to the arrival of the high-speed streams associated to the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24.The wind speed ranged between 450 km/s to 550 km/h. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) slightly increased up to the 8.1 nT. The southward component (Bz) was fluctuating between -5.4 nT and 4.2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was negative, directed toward the Sun, then around 01:00 UTC it rotated to the positive sector. Mild enhancement of the solar wind conditions are expected for the following day.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp=4 and K_BE=4) due to the arrival of the high-speed streams associated to the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24, and the negative value of the southward component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet to unsettled.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period. It is expected to remain close to the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels for the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 107, sur la base de 21 stations.

Indices solaires pour 29 Jun 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	021
Ap estimé	021
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	106 - Basé sur 22 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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