Affichage des archives de dimanche, 2 juillet 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Jul 02 1245 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
02 Jul 2023	169	007
03 Jul 2023	169	011
04 Jul 2023	169	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was at moderated levels over the last 24 hours with several C-class flares and two M-class flares. The M1.1 and M2.1-class flares were produced by the new bipolar NOAA Active Region AR-3359 at 22:23 UTC on July 01, and at 02:35 UTC on July 02. NOAA Active Region AR-3354, which is the most complex region on the disc (Beta-gamma-delta) continued to produce several C-class flares. The other complex active regions have also produced several C-class flares. We expect the activity remaining mostly at low to moderated levels with several C-class flares, and possible isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the SOHO/LASCO coronograph images over the past 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

A small equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) has transited the central meridian on July 01. The high-speed teams associated to this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind condition near Earth in the next days.

Vent solaire

The solar wind parameters showed a slow solar wind regime. The wind speed was between 424 km/s to 500 km/h. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) also was below 6.5 nT. The southward component (Bz) was fluctuating between -4.5 nT and 3.6 nT being manly positive. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was positive, directed outward of the Sun. The solar wind regime is expected to remain in this slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours. Then mild enhancement of the solar wind conditions associated with the small equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) is expected later on the next day.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp=4 and K_BE=4) due to the arrival of the high-speed streams associated to the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24, and the negative value of the southward component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet to unsettled.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period. It is expected to remain close to the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels for the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 143, sur la base de 18 stations.

Indices solaires pour 01 Jul 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	131 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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