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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Aug 09 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 Aug 2023	160	007
10 Aug 2023	160	007
11 Aug 2023	160	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity has been quite to moderate over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares. The most complex and productive region NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01) has now rotated over the East limb. The other most active region, NOAA AR 3387 (Catania sunspot group 07), continued to produce many C-class flares and is now also rotating over the East limb. The larger flare was a C8.8 produced by NOAA AR 3394 (Catania sunspot group 13) and was peaking at 18:10 UTC on August 08. The other regions do not show significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be quite to moderate over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flare and a small chance of M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No coronal mass ejection (CME) with an Earth- directed component was identified in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

The general solar wind conditions were close to the background levels over the past 24 hours: The solar wind speed slowly decreased from 515 km/s in the beginning of the period to current values below 400 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was below 7.5 nT . The north-south component was fluctuating between -4.7 nT and 7.8 nT. The coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 07:12 UTC heading towards Earth may still disturb the solar wind conditions later today. The second coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 22:25 UTC is not expected to disturb the solar wind conditions.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with some short unsettled periods recorded locally in Belgium(NOAA Kp 1-2, K Belgium 1-3) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettle conditions is expected for the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux started to rise at 21:46 UTC on August 07 and crossed the 10 MeV warning threshold at 01:10 UTC on August 08 as measured by GOES. This proton event was following the X1.5 class flare that was observed on August 07 peaking at 20:46 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above the 10 MeV warning threshold in the next 12-24 hours before decreasing. New event cannot be excluded due to the flaring activity.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at the level of the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain close to this level or just below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 107, sur la base de 16 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 Aug 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	142
Flux solaire à 10 cm	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	011
Ap estimé	010
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	124 - Basé sur 25 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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