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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Aug 20 1234 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
20 Aug 2023	148	015
21 Aug 2023	146	011
22 Aug 2023	145	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C3.7 flare peaking at 06:26 UTC on August 20, associated with NOAA AR3409. NOAA AR3409 has, however, decayed significantly over the period. NOAA AR 3403 also produced low C-class flares. The remaining regions were mostly stable or in decay and were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

There were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Vent solaire

The solar wind parameters showed further enhancement. The interplanetary magnetic field increased from 3 nT to near 10nT. Bz had a minimum value of -6 nT. The solar wind speed increased further from 450km/s to 690 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on August 20 and 21, while the Earth remains under the influence for the high-speed stream, slowly returning to nominal conditions from on August 22.

Géomagnétisme

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3, K Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels, with isolated active periods possible on August 20 due to the ongoing high speed stream influence.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold on August 20 and is likely to increase on August 21 and 22. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 107, sur la base de 25 stations.

Indices solaires pour 19 Aug 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	010
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	134 - Basé sur 23 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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