Affichage des archives de vendredi, 8 septembre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Sep 08 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
08 Sep 2023	163	009
09 Sep 2023	165	009
10 Sep 2023	160	006

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

During last 24 hour solar flaring activity was at the C-class level with isolated M-class flare observed on September 07. The GOES M 2.1 flare which peaked at 19:09 UT originated from the Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3425). Presently available data do not show on disc signatures of the possibly associated CME, i.e., EIT wave and coronal dimming. Out of eight active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disc, one has beta-gamma configuration, and five active regions have beta configuration of the photospheric magnetic field which indicates the large probability for C-class flaring to continue in the coming hours. The M-class flares are also possible with about 50 percent probability.

Éjection de masse coronale

The CME associated with the M 2.1 flare was rather narrow and slow and it is not expected to arrive to Earth. There were no other possibly Earth directed CMEs observed in the presently available data.

Vent solaire

Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind with velocity of about 350 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT.

Géomagnétisme

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, and we expect them to stay so in the coming hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels and we do not expect significant change in the coming hours. As the Catania sunspot group 41 (NOAA AR 3421) has increased in the complexity of its photospheric magnetic field and it is approaching to the West solar limb, the strong flaring activity in the coming days could be associated with the particle event.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has continue to fluctuate around the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level. We do not expect significant change in these parameters in the coming hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 126, sur la base de 22 stations.

Indices solaires pour 07 Sep 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	148
Flux solaire à 10 cm	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	007
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	141 - Basé sur 29 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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