Affichage des archives de lundi, 9 octobre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Oct 09 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 Oct 2023	157	006
10 Oct 2023	154	006
11 Oct 2023	151	014

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent during the last 24 hours, with the brightest flares being a C7 and a C6 from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3451 (magnetic configuration Beta-Delta, Catania group 87). Most of the flaring activity was produced by the same AR, while NOAA AR 3448 (Catania group 99) and NOAA AR 3460 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma) also contributed significantly. More C-class flaring activity is highly expected in the next 24 hours and there is a good chance of M-class flare(s), particularly from NOAA AR 3451.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

A large equatorial corona hole with a negative magnetic polarity continues its crossing of the central meridian. An associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective at 11 Oct.

Vent solaire

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 290 km/h and 350 km/h in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was up to 7 nT and its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately directed away for the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow SW regime in the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet with a single 3-hour period of unsettled conditions globally (NOAA Kp 1- to 3-), while locally there were consistently quiet (K BEL 0 to 2) during the past 24 hours. They are expected to continue at quiet levels both globally and locally for the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached but did not exceed the 1000 pfu threshold for a few hours yesterday. For the next 24 hours it is expected to be above background but remain below the threshold.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 174, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 Oct 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	007
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	150 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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