Affichage des archives de vendredi, 27 octobre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Oct 27 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
27 Oct 2023	125	018
28 Oct 2023	127	013
29 Oct 2023	127	013

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity increased to moderate levels in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a long duration M1.4 flare, peaking at 23:24 on Oct 26. The flare was also associated with a Type II radio burst and originated from the region near N20E88. There are currently four numbered active regions on the solar disk. The newly numbered NOAA AR 3273 (beta class), that recently rotated into view over the east limb, produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours together with NOAA AR 3471 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low level over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo CME was observed at 23:14 UTC (as detected by Cactus tool) on Oct 26. It is associated with a GOES M1.4 flare and a Type II radio burst. The CME is not expected to be Earth directed given the source location. No other Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections have been detected in the last 24 hours in the available SOHO/LASCO images.

Trous coronaux

Two positive polarity coronal holes, one equatorial and one in northern hemisphere, began to transit the central meridian today, Oct 27. An associated high speed stream in in-situ solar wind measurements is expected from late on Oct 29.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream. The solar wind speed increased to values around 560 km/s by around 21:00 UTC on Oct 26, before gradually decreasing to values around 420 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field had a maximum value of 11 nT going to 5 nT by the end of the period. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between -8 nT and 9 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease over the next days. From late on Oct 29 solar wind parameters might become slightly elevated due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from positive polarity coronal holes, that started to transit the central meridian today, on Oct 27.

Géomagnétisme

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm conditions globally and active conditions locally (NOAA KP: 3 to 5- and K Bel 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the next 24 hours with a chance for isolated active and minor storm periods due to HSS influence.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 064, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 26 Oct 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	024
Ap estimé	026
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	054 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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