Affichage des archives de jeudi, 2 novembre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Nov 02 1302 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
02 Nov 2023	162	009
03 Nov 2023	160	005
04 Nov 2023	161	012

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with an M1.4 flare, start time 11:37 UTC, end time 12:43 UTC, peak time 12:26 UTC on Nov 1st from an active region behind the east limb. This regions also produced multiple low to high C-class flaring. NOAA AR 3474 (beta-gamma) remains the largest and most complex active region on the visible disc and has produced multiple low C-class flaring and an impulsive M1.7 flare, start time 12:18 UTC, end time 12:26 UTC, peak time 12:22 UTC on Nov 2nd. The remaining low flaring activity as produced by NOAA AR 3472 (beta), which has shown some signs of decay. A new active region, NOAA AR 3478 (beta), has rotated from the east limb, but is relatively simply and has remained quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely C-class flares and increased chances for M-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

The slow coronal mass ejection (CME) related to a south-east filament eruption reported yesterday and first seen in LASCO/C2 imagery at 22:24 UTC on Oct 31st is now modelled to have a possible glancing blow late on Nov 04th or early Nov 5th. A north-east partial halo CME is first observed in the LASCO/C2 data around 03:24 UTC on Nov 2nd. A possible source for this eruption could be a plage region in the north-east quadrant near the upper end of the large coronal hole in the eastern hemisphere. Post-erruptive arcade is visible in the possible source region after 04:00 UTC on Nov 2nd. The CME has been detected by STEREO COR2 with a projected velocity below 300 km/s. Preliminary analysis suggests chances for a possible glancing blow late on Nov 06th on Nov 07th with a rather low impact. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind velocity was below 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 5.1 nT and a minimum Bz of -4.3 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at background slow solar wind levels until a possible glancing blow arrival late on Nov 04th or early on Nov 05th.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the upcoming days.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to oscillate around and above this threshold in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 127, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 01 Nov 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	009
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	125 - Basé sur 13 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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