Affichage des archives de jeudi, 9 novembre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Nov 09 1235 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 Nov 2023	148	019
10 Nov 2023	150	021
11 Nov 2023	152	015

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C4.2-flare, with peak time 20:13 UTC on November 08, associated with NOAA AR 3483 (beta-gamma), most of the flaring activity came from this active region. There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk and a yet unnumbered active region is emerging on the northern hemisphere near the central meridian. NOAA AR 3484 (alpha) started to emerge and was numbered this period. NOAA AR 3477 (beta), NOAA AR 3480 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3482 (alpha) have remained relatively stable and were mostly quiet. NOAA AR 3479 has started to rotate over the West limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images / coronagraph imagery.

Trous coronaux

A high latitude small positive polarity coronal hole has started to pass the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. We do not expect a significant impact from a high speed stream associated with this coronal hole.

Vent solaire

In the last 24 hours, the Earth continued to be under the influence of a high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 3 nT and 5 nT. The Bz fluctuated between positive and negative values with a minimum value of - 5 nT. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE fluctuated between to 664 km/s and 780 km/s but no more ACE data is available beyond 21:10 UTC on November 08. The DISCOVR data shows the solar wind speed to be very stable around 480 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours, due to the waning influence of the high-speed stream.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions globally (Kp 4) between 18:00 and 21:00 UT on November 08 and reached active conditions locally (K Bel 4). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background level over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 fluctuated around the 1000 pfu threshold between 13:45 UTC and 16:15 UTC on November 08 and crossed the 1000 pfu threshold again at 11:25 on November 09. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to cross the 1000 pfu threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal to moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 108, sur la base de 12 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 Nov 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	017
Ap estimé	018
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	115 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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