Affichage des archives de dimanche, 19 novembre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Nov 19 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
19 Nov 2023	127	007
20 Nov 2023	129	007
21 Nov 2023	131	020

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

There are three active regions visible on the disk. NOAA AR 3486 is rotating out of view over the west limb. Most of the activity comes from the ARs rotating into view over the east limb. In particular, NOAA 3490, with beta magnetic field configuration, but the full extent of the AR is not yet visible. This AR produced two M-class flares in the last 24 hours, the strongest one was an M1.1 flare peaking at 16:44 UTC on 18 November. More M-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

The high speed solar wind emanating from the low latitudinal extension of a high latitude coronal hole (in the northern hemisphere, negative polarity) may arrive to the Earth in 24 hours. Although, due to the high latitude location of the coronal hole, the high speed solar wind may miss the Earth. The solar wind from a second, equatorial, coronal hole with positive polarity may affect the Earth in 48 hours.

Vent solaire

The Earth is immersed in slow solar wind with speed around 380 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Same conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. The situation will change when the high speed solar wind from two coronal holes arrives to the Earth in 24 to 48 hours.

Géomagnétisme

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally and locally (NOAA KP 2, K_Bel 2). Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, active conditions can be expected after due to the arrival of a high speed stream.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 065, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 18 Nov 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Ap estimé	002
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	032 - Basé sur 11 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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