Affichage des archives de mardi, 5 décembre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Dec 05 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
05 Dec 2023	138	017
06 Dec 2023	138	017
07 Dec 2023	138	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity wasb moderated over past 24 hours with one M-class flare and several C-class flares. The M-class flare was observed at the East limb from a new bipolar region (currently located at 18 degree latitude North and 75 degree longitude East). This new region was the most active and also produced several C-class flares. The regions NOAA 3500, 3508, 3511 continue to produce C-class flares. The currently most complex region, NOAA 3500, with a beta- gamma magnetic class, showed some declining phase. C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours with some chances of M-class flare from the new region on the East limb.

Éjection de masse coronale

A large coronal dimming was observed the central meridian near 18 degree latitude South. No associated coronal mass ejection had been observed in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images yet, however, due to its location it may have an Earth directed components and may impact the solar wind environment near Earth in a couple of days. More information will come as data becomes available. No other Earth directed coronal mass ejection was identified in the currently available SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe images.

Trous coronaux

The large equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) is currently on the geoeffective location of the Sun (on the West side near longitudes 40-50 degrees).

Vent solaire

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by the High-Speed Stream (HSS) from the large equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Saturday 2 of December. The SW speed ranged between 500 km/s and 600 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) reached up to 15 nT then decreased to values around 5 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -10 and 9 nT as a result of the HSS arrival. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was negative (directed towards the Sun) during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain strongly affected by the said HSS during the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. We expect mainly unsettled condition in the next 24 hours in response to the ongoing fast solar wind conditions, possibly with short periods of active conditions.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and it is expected to remain mostly below 1000 pfu during the next 24 hours, however, due to the ongoing fast solar wind condition we expect the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to show some increases. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours with also some increases due to the ongoing solar wind conditions.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 139, sur la base de 03 stations.

Indices solaires pour 04 Dec 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	137
Flux solaire à 10 cm	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	009
Ap estimé	008
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	115 - Basé sur 11 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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