Affichage des archives de vendredi, 5 janvier 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jan 05 1240 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
05 Jan 2024	130	008
06 Jan 2024	132	011
07 Jan 2024	134	017

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C3.7-flare, with peak time 08:09 UTC on January 05, associated with NOAA AR 3534 (beta). There are currently 4 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on disk but produced only C-class flares in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3534 (beta) and NOAA AR 3537 (beta) and NOAA AR 3538 (beta-gamma) have grown in size and produced some C-flares. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for an isolated X-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

Two Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), were detected in LASCO C2 data one at 13:36 UTC on January 04 and the second at 02:00 UTC on January 05 both were associated with a NOAA AR 3536. The second CME was also associated with an eruption, observed at 00:38 on January 05, in SDO/AIA 304 and 193. Further analysis of these CMEs is ongoing.

Trous coronaux

A positive polarity coronal hole is continuing to pass the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole is expected to impact the Earth late on January 06 or on January 07.

Vent solaire

In the last 24 hours, the Earth continued to be under the waning influence of a high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole and an ICME. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE, decreased from around 440 km/s to around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 3 nT and 4 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -4 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, slow solar wind conditions are expected.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached unsettled conditions globally and locally (Kp 3 and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was above the 10 pfu threshold and decreased below this threshold at 01:40 UTC on January 05. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 122, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 04 Jan 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	132
Flux solaire à 10 cm	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	107 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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