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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jan 16 1253 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
16 Jan 2024	183	007
17 Jan 2024	183	007
18 Jan 2024	183	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. There are currently 12 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3540 (beta-gamma) has become more magnetically complex but does no show any significant flaring activity. NOAA AR 3540 (beta) has been the most active region in the last 24 hours, producing most of the C-flares. All other regions have alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. NOAA AR 3539 has started to rotate off the visible disk, NOAA AR 3539 has decayed. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares and possible M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

Based on currently available coronagraph images several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

The small mid-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere (with positive magnetic polarity) is now on the West-side and has finished crossing the central meridian.

Vent solaire

Mostly slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours, with probably some weak influence from the high-speed solar wind stream equatorial coronal hole (with positive magnetic polarity), which reached the central meridian on January 11. The solar wind speed as measured by DSCOVR ranged between 300 km/s and 518 km/s, but DSCOVR data is marked as suspect while ACE data was unavailable during this period. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 3 nT and 10 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component fluctuating between -6 nT and 6 nT being manly positive.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet (Kp 2 and K Bel 2). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours due to the arrival of the high-speed solar wind stream associated to the equatorial coronal hole.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux where at background level. It is expected to be at background levels in the next 24 hours. Due to the number of complex regions currently on the disk, we cannot exclude the possibility of new proton events in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 125, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 15 Jan 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	183
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	005
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	142 - Basé sur 19 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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