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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Feb 13 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
13 Feb 2024	180	027
14 Feb 2024	178	040
15 Feb 2024	178	016

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with three M-class flares and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M2.6 flare, peaking at 21:17 on Feb 12, associated with the AR behind the east limb (N28E86). NOAA AR 3576 remains the most complex AR on the visible solar disc and produced two M-class flares: an M1.1 flare, peaking at 13:08 on Feb 12 and an M1.4 flare, peaking at 15:48 on Feb 12. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3583 (beta-gamma). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely M-class flaring and a chance for an isolated X-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 14:12 UTC on February 12th. The CME is associated to a prominence eruption from behind the north-east limb. Based on the source location, no impact on Earth is expected. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 530 km/s to 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -4 nT and 4 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). Similar solar wind conditions are expected, with a possibility of a week enhancement on Feb 13 - Feb 14 due to the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from Feb 9th and Feb 10th.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL: 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly at quiet levels, with a chance of reaching active and minor storm levels on Feb 13 - 14 due to potential CMEs arrivals.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained above the 10pfu threshold, reaching a maximum value of 120 pfu as measured by GOES-18 at 06:15 UTC on February 13. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at minor radiation storm levels on Feb 13th and, in case of no new triggers, decline towards nominal levels by the end of Feb 14th.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 135, sur la base de 19 stations.

Indices solaires pour 12 Feb 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	193
Flux solaire à 10 cm	208
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	160 - Basé sur 26 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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