Affichage des archives de mardi, 27 février 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Feb 27 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
27 Feb 2024	174	013
28 Feb 2024	176	012
29 Feb 2024	174	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flares was a C3.5-flares with peak times at 07:42 UTC on February 27 from NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta). Weaker C-class flares were also observed from NOAA AR 3595 and 3596. There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region, and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3586 (alpha) is now at the west limb. A new active region has rotated to the north-east quadrant of the visible solar disk and numbered NOAA AR 3596 (beta). Additionally, NOAA AR 3595 has been growing and has shown some evidence of flux emergence. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a small chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

Based on currently available coronagraph images, no Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

In the last 24 hours, the Earth was still under the influence of the high speed stream from the large negative polarity coronal hole currently visible in the south-west quadrant of the solar disk (which finished crossing the central meridian on February 24). The solar wind speed fluctuated between 400 km/s and 450 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 3 nT and 8 nT. The Bz (north-south) component reached a minimum value of -7 nT. Over the entire period, the phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun), with short periods in the positive sector in the afternoon (UTC) of February 26, and around midnight (UTC) on February 27. In the next 24 hours, we expect similar solar wind conditions.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm conditions globally (Kp 5) and unsettled conditions locally (K Bel 3) in response to the solar wind perturbed conditions associated with the passage of the high speed stream. Quite to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours due to possible prologued negative Bz conditions in the solar wind.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 120, sur la base de 12 stations.

Indices solaires pour 26 Feb 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	114
Flux solaire à 10 cm	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	011
Ap estimé	012
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	135 - Basé sur 13 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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