Affichage des archives de vendredi, 1 mars 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Mar 01 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
01 Mar 2024	168	003
02 Mar 2024	168	006
03 Mar 2024	168	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flares was an C4.0 flare with peak time at 01:25 UTC on March 1 from NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta). Weaker C-class flares were observed from NOAA ARs 3590, 3594, 3598, and from a yet unnumbered region at the east limb of the visible disk. There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma- delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region, and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. A new active region (numbered NOAA AR 3598, alpha) emerged on the south-west quadrant of the visible solar disk (currently around S13W25) and is growing. Meanwhile, NOAA AR 3592 decayed to a plage. One yet unnumbered active region is rotating from the east limb (currently around S13E82) and displayed some flaring activity in the past 24 hours. All other regions were inactive. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a small chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

Based on currently available coronagraph images, no Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. Throughout this period, the solar wind speed decreased from about 405 km/s to about 350 km/s, and the total interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 1 nT and 6 nT. Around 22:40 UTC on February 29, the passage of a small magnetic structure induced small jumps in the magnetic field strength (from 3 nT to 5 nT), and in the solar wind speed (from 375 km/s to 405 km/s). Until 07:10 UTC on March 1, when the magnetic structure ended, the magnetic field was stable with an intensity of 5 nT and a Bz (north- south) component around -4 nT. Following the passage of this magnetic structure, the solar wind speed continued to decline. The phi-angle remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun), with a prolonged period in the positive sector (away from the Sun) during the passage of the magnetic structure. In the next 24 hours, we expect slow solar wind conditions.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally unsettled (Kp 3 and K Bel 3) during the passage of a small magnetic structure in the solar wind. Quiet to unsettled conditions are also expected in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 124, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 29 Feb 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	003
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	128 - Basé sur 13 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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