Affichage des archives de mardi, 12 mars 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Mar 12 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
12 Mar 2024	127	007
13 Mar 2024	125	016
14 Mar 2024	123	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

There are four active regions visible on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3599 is the only one with a complex magnetic field configuration (beta-gamma-delta), and producing most of the recent flaring. The strongest flare was a C3.9, that peaked at 11:35 UTC, from NOAA AR 3599. M-class flares can be expected, X-class flares are possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

An equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on March 10. The high speed solar wind from this coronal hole may arrive at Earth on 13 March.

Vent solaire

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 420 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar solar wind conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours. A high speed stream and a glancing blow from the 11 March CME will probably create disturbed conditions in the second half of 13 March.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA_Kp up to 3 and K_BEL up to 2). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. After that, a glancing blow from the 11 March CME and a high speed stream could arrive on 13 March and cause active conditions.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was slightly above the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 093, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 11 Mar 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	108
Flux solaire à 10 cm	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	074 - Basé sur 14 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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