Affichage des archives de vendredi, 22 mars 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Mar 22 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
22 Mar 2024	181	010
23 Mar 2024	178	004
24 Mar 2024	172	004

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours with NOAA Active Regions (AR) 3614 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 21), 3615 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 22), and 3617 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 27) producing almost all the C-class flaring activity. Although NOAA AR 3615 has lost some of its magnetic complexity, it is still capable of producing an isolated M-class flare for the next 24 hours. Also NOAA AR 3617 has now become active, hence C-class and possibly M-class flaring activity is expected from this region in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME launched yesterday at 18:36 UTC can been seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images. It is associated with a filament eruption seen on disk and is not expected to be geo-effective.

Vent solaire

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained affected by the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) of yesterday 01:50 UTC. The SW speed ranged from 310 to 370 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 6 and 13 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -12 and 11 nT and remained at low negative values for many hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied between being directed towards the Sun to be directed away from the Sun. The effects of the CME are expected to wane in the next 24 hours and the conditions to change towards a slow SW regime.

Géomagnétisme

The global geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5) 24 hours ago and have since dropped to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 3). During the same period the local conditions raised to active levels (K BEL 4) and gradually dropped to quiet conditions (K BEL 2). In the next 24 hours they are expected to continue dropping both globally and locally and reach quiet levels globally.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 155, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 21 Mar 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	219
Flux solaire à 10 cm	197
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	022
Ap estimé	025
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	168 - Basé sur 19 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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