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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Apr 02 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
02 Apr 2024	125	007
03 Apr 2024	125	014
04 Apr 2024	125	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. Since the large Catania sunspot region 22 (NOAA AR 3615) has rotated over the west limb, the X-ray flux has decreased and is currently below the C level. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with possible C-class flares and a very low probability for an M-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Trous coronaux

A negative polarity northern polar coronal hole that extends down to mid-latitudes has now fully crossed the central meridian and is currently on the geo-effective location. Another negative polarity equatorial coronal hole has began to cross the central meridian on April 01.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions remained slightly elevated due to the arrival of the high-speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to traverse the central meridian on March 27. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 407 km/s and 565 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was between 4.0 nT and 8.4 nT. The Bz component was mostly fluctuating and reached a minimum value of -5.4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to return to a slow solar wind speed regime for a very short period. It will be then followed by some enhancements due to the high-speed stream from the negative polarity northern polar coronal hole that extends down to mid-latitudes, which began to traverse the central meridian on March 31.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2 and Local K Bel 2-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled with possible active conditions on April 02 and April 03 associated to a high-speed stream from the negative polarity northern polar coronal which began to traverse the central meridian on March 31.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. There is still a small chance of an increase from flares associated with Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615) that has rotated over the west limb.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels over the next day.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 046, sur la base de 11 stations.

Indices solaires pour 01 Apr 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	011
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	031 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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