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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 May 14 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
14 May 2024	212	011
15 May 2024	205	025
16 May 2024	200	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was high during the last 24 hours with an X1.7 flare produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group 86). NOAA AR 3664 and NOAA AR 3674 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 3) produced all of the M-class flaring activity of the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 3664 is expected to continue its flaring activity at an M-class level with a chance of an isolated X-class flare. NOAA AR 3674 is expected to reduce its activity to the C-class level.

Éjection de masse coronale

A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in STEREO-A/COR2 and SOHO/LASCO images starting from yesterday 09:44 UTC. It is estimated to be Earth-directed and is expected to arrive at Earth later today.

Vent solaire

During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) speed continue its drop and the magnetic conditions continue to be undisturbed. The SW speed dropped from 760 to 500 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 3 and 9 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -3 and 7 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied between directed away and towards the Sun. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to arrive at Earth late today and cause significant disruption.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally unsettled to quiet (NOAA Kp 3+ to 2- and K BEL 3 to 2) during the past 24 hours. In the next 24 hours they are expected to reach active or minor storm levels as a result of the expected arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, increased above the 10 pfu threshold level since yesterday 14:20 UTC. It is expected to stay above this alert level for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, increased to levels around the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to remain close to the alert level for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence increased during the past 24 hours but remain at low levels. It is expected remain at the same level in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 193, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 13 May 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	252
Flux solaire à 10 cm	215
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	025
Ap estimé	033
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	225 - Basé sur 22 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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