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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 May 20 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
20 May 2024	201	007
21 May 2024	201	013
22 May 2024	201	022

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

There are nine visible ARs on the solar disk. Flaring activity was driven by NOAA AR 3685 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) with three M-class flares, the strongest being an M2.5 one peaking at 17:47 UTC on 21 May. NOAA AR 3683 (beta magnetic field configuration) has produced several C-class flares today and has potential for stronger ones. More M-class flares are likely and X-class flares are possible in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

A full halo CME was first seen at 05:36 UT on LASCO C2, originating from an eruption close to NOAA AR 3683 (located at the southwest, at S25W60), associated with a C6.7 flare. The CME speed is around 1500 km/s.The bulk of the CME is directed to the southwest, but a glancing blow can be expected on 22 May.

Vent solaire

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 350 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT. There are low chances of a glancing blow from the CME on 17 May, otherwise slow wind conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). If we see a glancing blow from the 17 May CME, disturbed conditions may occur, otherwise quiet conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. It may increase over the next hours as a result of the halo CME from 05:36 UTC.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 146, sur la base de 22 stations.

Indices solaires pour 19 May 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	201
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	011
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	167 - Basé sur 25 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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