Affichage des archives de jeudi, 23 mai 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 May 23 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
23 May 2024	196	007
24 May 2024	194	011
25 May 2024	192	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

There are six visible ARs on the solar disk. There were four M-class flares in the last 24 hours, from NOAA 3679 (that evolved into beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration). The strongest one was an M4.2 peaking at 02:16 UTC. NOAA AR 3683 rotated over the west limb, but is still producing significant flares (C9.8 at 07:01 UTC). NOAA AR 3685 (beta gamma magnetic field configuration) has also potential for strong flaring activity. For the next 24 hours, more M-class flares can be expected and X-class flares are possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed CME has been observed in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

A negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has developed a low latitudinal extension that traversed the central meridian on 21 May. A possible arrival of high speed steam from this coronal hole could arrive at the Earth (late) on 24 May.

Vent solaire

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Similar quiet conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 135, sur la base de 15 stations.

Indices solaires pour 22 May 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	188
Flux solaire à 10 cm	196
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Ap estimé	004
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	151 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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