Affichage des archives de samedi, 25 mai 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 May 25 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
25 May 2024	163	007
26 May 2024	165	007
27 May 2024	167	016

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

There are six visible ARs on the solar disk. Solar activity has declined in the last 24 hours, since NOAA AR 3679 is rotating over the west limb. It still produced one M-class flare (the only one of the last 24 hours), M1.4 peaking at 20:25 UTC, and it may still produce significant flares as it rotates out of view. Old NOAA AR3663, which produced very high activity in the last rotation, is rotating back into view over the east limb. NOAA ARs 3685 and 3686 have potential for M-class flares For the next 24 hours M-class flares can still be expected.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo CME was observed leaving the Sun at 13:25 UT (LASCO C2) on 24 May, directed towards the east with an angular width of about 150 degrees and speed close to 600 km/s. This CME is backsided and will not affect the Earth. A second wide CME (angular width around 80 degrees) lifted of the NW limb at 10:48 UT (LASCO C2) on 24 May, this CME is not believed to affect the Earth either.

Vent solaire

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 360 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet both at planetary and local levels (Kp and K_Bel up to 2).Similar conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 099, sur la base de 11 stations.

Indices solaires pour 24 May 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	135
Flux solaire à 10 cm	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	011
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	124 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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